UniCredit Closes In on Majority Stake in Commerzbank

The takeover saga of Commerzbank by UniCredit has reached a critical point. UniCredit's CEO Andrea Orcel has been steadily acquiring shares in Commerzbank, now holding around 47.6% of its capital on an economic basis and approximately 49.7% of voting rights.

Orcel began buying Commerzbank shares last summer with initial purchases followed by a direct acquisition of another 5% from the German state that September. Since then, UniCredit has expanded its position methodically. The tender offer made by UniCredit expired on July 3rd, but it drew only 17.6% of shares, mostly from entities affiliated with UniCredit itself.

The regulatory process is also moving forward. Germany's financial regulator Bafin deemed UniCredit's application for a majority stake complete and forwarded it to the European Central Bank last Tuesday. The ECB now has 60 working days to reach a decision, which can be extended by another 20 days.

Meanwhile, Commerzbank reported record first-half results, with net income rising 40% to €1.81 billion and operating profit climbing 14% to €2.7 billion. The bank also committed to distributing 100% of its net income after AT1 coupon payments to shareholders, roughly €3.2 billion, with at least half paid as a dividend.

The market has taken note of these developments, with Commerzbank's shares closing Friday at €39.17, up 1.61% on the day and bringing the year-to-date gain to 8.50%. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether UniCredit will secure control of Commerzbank.