US Business Cycle Indicators Remain Strong Despite Signs of Slowing Down

According to recent data from various sources, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Federal Reserve, key indicators of the US business cycle remain strong as of July's end. The NBER BCDC indicators, which track the expansion or contraction of economic activity, show a mixed picture.

The BLS employment numbers, specifically nonfarm payroll employment (NFP), show steady growth, while civilian employment with smoothed population controls indicates a more moderate pace. Industrial production has also been increasing, but at a slower rate than in previous periods.

Personal income excluding current transfers, a key metric for consumer spending power, continues to rise, and manufacturing and trade sales have shown a slight uptick. The GDPNow nowcast of 7/10 suggests that economic growth may be slowing down slightly, but still remains above pre-pandemic levels.

Other indicators, such as the ADP private nonfarm payroll employment and real retail sales (CPI deflated), show a more mixed picture, with some signs of deceleration. However, overall, these data suggest that the US economy is maintaining its expansionary trajectory.