US CPI and ECB Decisions to Drive Dollar, Gold, and Oil Markets

The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Friday and the European Central Bank's rate decision this Thursday will be crucial for traders, particularly those invested in gold, oil, and currencies. The probability of a quarter-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve stands at 59%, with a hotter-than-expected inflation reading likely to strengthen the US dollar and put pressure on gold.

Gold has been trading near $4,400 due to rising yields, but traders are watching key support levels around $4,310. A break below this level could shift attention towards $4,200. In contrast, a weaker-than-expected CPI print might keep policy on hold and weigh on the greenback.

The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter-point to 2.5% despite above-3% inflation. However, expectations diverge regarding further tightening by December. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading around $1.1600, with a potential move towards $1.1710 if the ECB's decision is seen as hawkish.

WTI crude oil has surged above $92.00 due to escalating US-Iran tensions and OPEC+ holding October output steady. While resistance is seen at $94.60, traders should be cautious of a potential drop below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $80.40.