US Employment Growth Revised Downward by BLS

The US employment growth has been revised downward by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), indicating that job creation was even weaker than previously estimated. The BLS reported a preliminary annual benchmark revision to the closely watched payrolls data, which showed a reduction in total US employment as of March. On a nonseasonally adjusted basis, the level of total US employment is now estimated to be 79,000 jobs lower than previously estimated, a reduction of about 0.1 percent.

The benchmark revisions have been abnormally large since the pandemic due to measurement model challenges and low survey response rates. The revision estimate implied that nonseasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll gains averaged about 11,000 per month through March over the preceding 12 months instead of 18,000. On a seasonally adjusted basis, job gains by current estimates averaged about 23,000 over that span.

The revision to estimated US private employment was somewhat larger at negative 178,000, or 0.1 percent. This suggests a larger reduction to the pace of private-sector job growth to an average of 24,000 a month from 38,000 based on previously published data.