US Employment Growth Slower Than Expected, Official Data Understates Job Creation
Commerzbank economist Bernd Weidensteiner is warning that US employment growth has been slower than expected, despite official data suggesting otherwise.
The average monthly gain in nonfarm payroll jobs over the past year was just 32,000, significantly lower than previous years. However, Weidensteiner argues that these figures may actually be understating job creation.
In December 2025, for example, quarterly census employment and wages (QCEW) data showed a gain of 299,000 jobs compared to the same period in 2024, while nonfarm payrolls reported only 69,000 new jobs. This discrepancy suggests that official data may be missing as many as 230,000 jobs.
Weidensteiner expects this trend to continue and is predicting a positive benchmark revision of around 250,000 jobs for March 2026. While this will not change the overall labor market trend, it highlights the need for caution in interpreting official employment data.