US Headline Inflation Forecasted to Remain Above Target at 3.4%

Truflation has forecast that annual U.S. headline inflation will remain at 3.4% in August, as higher gasoline prices, tariffs, and producer costs threaten to keep price pressure above the Federal Reserve's target.

The company expects headline CPI to rise by 0.3% monthly and remain at 3.4% annually, while core CPI is forecast to increase by 0.2% monthly and slow to 2.4% annually.

Gasoline prices have been a major contributor to headline inflation, rising 3.4% in August and 27.6% from a year earlier due to high crude prices, tight fuel inventories, and limited spare capacity at refineries.

The Cleveland Federal Reserve and market consensus also forecast an annual headline CPI of 3.4%, but expect headline prices to rise by 0.4% from July, compared with Truflation's 0.3% estimate.