US Inflation Data and ECB Decision Loom Large in Global Markets
This week's economic calendar is dominated by Friday's release of US inflation data for August, which could tip the balance towards either a pause or an interest rate hike at next week's meeting.
CPI Inflation on Friday, September 11, is crucial as Christopher Waller stated last Thursday that the disinflation process is progressing, and core inflation actually looks even better than the headline indicators suggest. He noted at the time that if the upcoming CPI inflation reading does not present a negative surprise, he will most likely support keeping interest rates unchanged at the next meeting.
The European Central Bank's decision on Thursday, September 10, is also highly anticipated. The market expects a total of three upward moves by mid-2027, but with current bets on more aggressive monetary policy tightening increasing due to rising TTF gas prices.