US Inflation Stalls at 3.7%, Adding Fuel to Fed Rate Debate
US inflation remained stubbornly high in July, holding steady at 3.7% above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. This unexpected pause in decline is likely to add to the central bank's debate over whether interest rates should be lifted or kept steady.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) rose 0.2% on a month-over-month basis in July, surpassing economists' forecasts of a 3.6% reading. The PCE peaked at 7.2% in June 2022 and had been on a path back toward 2%, but the trajectory changed after President Donald Trump unleashed a wave of import tariffs last year.
New tariff-induced pressures are likely coming, as trade negotiations between the US and its No. 2 trading partner Canada fell apart, resulting in new levies on $20 billion of Canadian goods imports to take effect soon. The Iran-war induced peak of 4.1% in May is still a concern, and the sluggish pace of improvement is unlikely to mollify a growing minority of officials who argue tighter policy is needed.