Forex
US Nonfarm Payrolls: Will July Deliver Another Disappointing Labor Market Report?
The upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report is expected to reveal whether the labor market continues its recent upward trend or succumbs to the 'weak July' curse.
Market consensus forecasts around 80,000 new jobs added in July, but various indicators suggest that the actual figure may be lower. Goldman Sachs predicts 75,000 new jobs, while Vanguard forecasts a significantly lower number of just 18,000.
The 'weak July' curse refers to the pattern of disappointing employment data in recent years. According to Goldman Sachs research, over the past three years, US July nonfarm payroll gains have averaged 66,000 below the three-month average at the time and 35,000 below market consensus.