US Q2 GDP Estimate Set to Decide Fed Rate Hike Timeline
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its preliminary Q2 GDP estimate on Thursday at 13:30 GMT, with analysts expecting 2.1% annualized growth.
Alongside the headline figure, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and the GDP Price Index will be published. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecast a more modest 1.6% Q2 expansion as of its July 27 update.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its July 28-29 meeting, but three FOMC members - Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan - dissented in favor of a rate hike, the most dissents since September 2016. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh acknowledged the tension directly, describing the internal debate as a 'good family fight'.
The three dissents carry real weight for how Thursday's data will be interpreted. A GDP beat that reinforces the US growth narrative could provide the catalyst to challenge resistance at 101.80.