Skip to content
Back to Guavy Wire
Forex

US Rate Hike Chances Plummet on Soft July Jobs Data

Instruments
USD
Share

Financial markets have lowered their forecasts for a US rate hike in September following July's jobs data, which showed a decline in hiring and a modest drop in unemployment.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate target has been steady at between 3.5 percent and 3.75 percent since its last meeting, with three officials dissenting in favor of a rate hike.

Rate futures have now priced in just a 43.9 percent chance of Fed tightening in September, down from 57 percent before the jobs report. This has led some to speculate that the central bank may not raise rates after all.

However, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin defended the labor market's stability, saying it 'was very consistent with how I've been seeing the labor market, which is, it's not loose, it's not tight'.

More on Forex

Disclaimer: Guavy is a data and market intelligence provider, not an investment advisor. The information, signals, and market analysis provided by the Guavy API and related services are for informational purposes only and are not intended as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an endorsement of any particular trading strategy. Trading in volatile markets, including cryptocurrency, carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Users should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Guavy makes no guarantee of trading profits or financial returns.

Market sentiment intelligence for apps, funds & agents

Location

729 55 Ave SW
Calgary AB T2V 0G4
Canada

© 2026 Guavy Inc