US Treasury Yield Hits Near-High, Rate Hike Probability Soars

The US Treasury yield retreated after briefly touching 4.979% on September 11, its highest level since October 2023.

The rise in yields was driven by increasing energy prices, inflationary pressures, and Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations.

Core CPI growth slowed from 2.5% to 2.4% year-over-year but increased 0.3% month-over-month, topping market forecasts.

The probability of a September Fed rate hike rose to 88.8%, with a 93.7% chance of at least 25 basis points through October and a 39.3% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike.