Warsh Confirmation Odds Split Among Prediction Markets and Retail Traders

Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve chair has sparked debate among prediction markets and retail traders. According to Kalshi voters, there's a 28% chance that Warsh will be confirmed before current Chair Jerome Powell's term expires on May 15.

Bettors on Kalshi predicted the highest chance of Warsh being confirmed as chair before July 1 at 80%, with another 67% predicting confirmation before June 1. The total bets on Kalshi totaled just under $1 million.

Warsh reiterated the central bank's independence during his Senate Banking Committee hearing, where he also deflected questions about his personal assets, including a $100 million investment in Juggernaut Fund LP.