Warsh Testimony Triggers Speculation on Rate Hikes and Energy Shock
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to testify before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Wednesday, July 15, 2026. Kalshi traders are speculating about what he will say in his testimony.
A recent event contract on the platform shows that over 50% of traders believe Warsh will mention the word 'shock', while a 74% majority think he will refer to 'oil'. This comes after the Iran-U.S. conflict briefly pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel last week, before trading back below $89 on Monday.
The Fed is expected to keep its overnight benchmark rate unchanged, with a nearly 75% chance of maintaining rates at current levels, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. However, Evercore ISI notes that it would be 'odd' for the central bank to ignore responding to an energy supply shock, given the recent price volatility and renewed US-Iran conflict.
Economists are divided on whether the Fed will raise rates this week, with odds increasing to around 38% from 16% last week. Another Kalshi contract shows a 68% chance of a rate hike taking place this year.