Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut: Global Markets Hang in Balance

Global stock markets are on track for a small weekly gain as investors await potentially market-moving remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. The MSCI's all country world share index gained 0.5% this week and moved back towards the record high reached earlier in the month.

Oil prices, however, are heading for their first weekly fall in three weeks, with Brent falling 0.6% to $89.2 a barrel. This drop in oil prices has helped lift global stocks as investors weigh developments in the Gulf and wait for Warsh's speech.

Warsh's message is seen as important not just for the next meeting but for how markets think about the path of interest rates over the coming months, according to Bruno Schneller, managing partner at Erlen Capital Management. Futures imply a 35% chance of a Fed rate increase at its September 16 meeting and fully price in a hike by December.

The 30-year Treasury yield edged up 1 basis point to 5.20%, though it remained down 8 basis points for the week, while the 10-year yield was flat at 4.68% and down 6 bps this week. Currency markets were subdued, with the dollar little changed against its main peers.