Warsh's Oil Shock Comments Set to Steer Markets

The market is focused on whether Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh mentions an oil shock at this week's policy press conference, according to Kalshi contracts.

Kalshi markets have assigned over 50% odds that Warsh will use the word 'shock' and 74% odds that he will mention 'oil' in his remarks on Wednesday.

This comes after Brent crude prices fell below $89 a barrel, following a brief spike above $100 last week amid U.S.-Iran tensions.

The CME FedWatch tool shows implied odds of a rate hike this week rising to 38% from 16%, while Kalshi contracts assign nearly 75% probability that rates remain steady in July.