Warsh's Speech to Determine Gold Price Direction After Fed Decision

The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates is set to have a significant impact on gold prices. On Wednesday, traders were cautious ahead of the Fed meeting, which could reset the outlook for interest rates and bullion.

Spot gold was little changed at $4,029.08 an ounce by 0301 GMT, while August US futures slipped 0.2% to $4,028.10. The market is expecting a roughly 68% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged and about a 32% chance of a quarter-point increase.

OANDA analyst Kelvin Wong said bullion would probably need a less hawkish message from the Fed to reverse its recent bearish bias. A hold accompanied by a warning that rates may rise soon could still lift Treasury yields and the dollar, limiting any relief rally.