Ackman Bets Big on Visa, Sees Room for 4.15% Rally
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square hedge fund has disclosed a new position in Visa (V) as part of its semiannual report released on August 13. This marks one of six entirely new positions added between March and June, alongside Mastercard (MA), Netflix (NFLX), S&P Global (SPGI), Intercontinental Exchange (INTC), and Alcon (ALC).
Ackman characterized the purchases as opportunities created by market dislocation in the first half of 2026, allowing him to build positions at prices he believes are well below intrinsic value. Visa stock is currently up more than 20% versus its year-to-date low.
Pershing Square's investment thesis on Visa centers on its role as a capital-light toll taker that collects about 20 basis points on a typical transaction for authorization, merchant acceptance, fraud protection, and dispute resolution. Ackman estimates that cards still represent only about half of addressable consumer spending globally, implying substantial runway for volume growth.
The valuation argument is compelling on its face, with Pershing Square estimating Visa trades at roughly 23 times forward earnings while projecting about 16% annual earnings growth over the next three to five years. However, risks include 'stablecoin-driven' disintermediation, agentic AI reshaping consumer commerce, and renewed Washington scrutiny of payment economics.
From an option-data perspective, investors tracking Barchart data should note that Visa's relatively compressed valuation multiple, combined with Ackman buying shares, could create a floor of institutional demand that supports near-term put-selling activity and bullish call spreads. The upper price indicating a 4.15% rally to $380 next month.
The Wall Street consensus sits at 'Strong Buy' with analysts having a consensus $417 price target on Visa stock, signaling potential for a nearly 14% upside over the next 12 months. However, Pershing Square's own funds are trailing the benchmark S&P 500 Index ($SPX) notably in 2026.