AI Boom Loses Steam as Goldman Sachs' Non-AI Index Roars Ahead
Goldman Sachs' S&P 500 ex-AI index has been outperforming the regular S&P 500 since late June. This index, launched on February 20, 2026, excludes companies that are driving the AI boom and represents about 45% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization.
The full S&P 500 delivered a total return of 76% over the three years leading up to the launch, while the ex-AI version only returned 32%. This historic decoupling between the AI and non-AI segments of the market is rare and unexpected, with a correlation that plummeted to -0.53 to -0.60 by late June.
Goldman strategist Ben Snider identified three investment themes driving the outperformance: consumer experience stocks, compounders with consistent earnings growth, and potential M&A candidates. The consumer experience basket alone delivered striking results, returning 17% year-to-date by July 2026 and outperforming the broader consumer discretionary sector by 17 percentage points.