Amazon Projected to Surpass Nvidia as World's Most Profitable Company

UBS projects Amazon's net income to reach $509 billion by 2030, potentially surpassing Nvidia.

The bank's estimate is based on a multi-year ramp, with Amazon posting roughly $120 billion in net earnings in 2026 and around $281 billion by 2028. On a per-share basis, UBS pencils out $45.16 in EPS at the end of that curve, which means Amazon is trading at about six times the bank's 2030 profit estimate.

The math behind UBS's projection sits inside one segment: AWS growth has accelerated for four straight quarters and is expected to reach 48% in 2027 with OpenAI running workloads on Amazon's Trainium chips. This could lead to a significant increase in AWS revenue, which would drive Amazon's net income into the half-trillion neighborhood.

Amazon is spending heavily to make this happen, investing about $200 billion in capital expenditures across 2026 on AI infrastructure, custom chips, robotics, and satellites. The company's current market capitalization is around $2.92 trillion, while Nvidia sits at about $4.86 trillion.