Amazon Stock on Track to Double by 2030 with Strong Earnings Growth

Amazon's stock price could potentially double by 2030 if the company continues to compound earnings at a rate of 20% per year. This is according to recent projections, with analysts expecting revenue growth in non-retail services such as Amazon Web Services (AWS) and custom chips to drive earnings. The company has seen significant growth in these areas, with AWS generating $42 billion in revenue in Q2 2026, up 37% from the previous year.

Amazon's operating margin climbed to 12.7% in 2026, up from 6.5% in 2023, indicating real leverage as revenue grows faster than operating expenses. The company's custom chips, Trainium and Graviton, are generating more than $25 billion in annualized revenue and growing at triple-digit rates.

The same analysts who see this growth opportunity also caution that Amazon's earnings may not grow every quarter, as the company absorbs higher transportation costs and ramps up spending on new data center capacity. Despite these headwinds, billionaire Bill Ackman and other analysts are modeling a little over 20% annualized earnings growth over the next several years.