Amazon Stock Price Driven by AI Capex Bill, Not Just AWS Growth
Amazon's stock price is driven by its AI capex bill and Anthropic stake, not just AWS growth. In Q2 2026, Amazon carried its Anthropic stake at $190.4 billion, roughly 1.5 times its long-term debt and about 7% of its market value. A $50.5 billion mark-up on that stake is why second-quarter net income was more than double operating income.
The company's operating story is strong, with net sales rising 20% to $200.6 billion in the second quarter, operating income climbing 43% to $27.5 billion, and AWS growing 36.7%, its fastest pace in 18 quarters. However, Amazon raised $81.9 billion of long-term debt over the same twelve months.
Amazon's price target has been revised to $340 bull case (+34.1%), a $290 base case (+14.4%), and a $190 bear case (-25.1%). The company is expected to spend approximately $220 billion in cash CapEx in 2026, with the higher cost of memory pushing this number up from its prior estimate.