Amazon's Stagnant Stock Price May Be About to Break Through
Amazon's stock has been stagnant in 2026, despite its accelerating operating story. The company's AWS division posted 36.7% growth in Q2, its fastest pace in nearly five years, while its advertising business generated $19.8 billion quarterly revenue, up 26%. Meanwhile, the shares have barely moved, with a mere 9.13% year-to-date gain to $251.89.
The Amazon stock price has been held back by two factors: capital spending and a headline overhang related to an inquiry into a fatal plane crash involving Amazon operations. The company guided to $200 billion in 2026 capex for AI infrastructure, which has put pressure on its free cash flow, turning it negative at $7.6 billion.
Despite this, Wall Street analysts remain bullish, with a consensus target of $328.17 and a model that predicts Amazon's stock could reach $353.36 for a 40.29% upside. However, the article argues that this target may be too cautious, given the sharp revision in 2026 EPS estimates from $8.66 to $12.57.
To reach a price of $300, Amazon's shares would need to gain 19.1%, with a forward P/E of 21x. This is considered a low bar for a business compounding operating income at 43.24% year-over-year. The article concludes that the bull case writes itself, given AWS' growth and CEO Andy Jassy's assertion that 'AWS is booming.'