Amgen's OCEAN(a) Study Faces Higher Hurdle After Rival's Disappointing Results

Amgen's shares have dropped some weight following Novartis's disappointing results in its Phase 3 trial of pelacarsen. The drug successfully lowered lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a), but failed to reduce major cardiovascular events, according to Reuters.

This setback sends a warning signal across the entire Lp(a) drug class: improving laboratory numbers may not necessarily translate to improved patient outcomes. Amgen's experimental olpasiran uses a different design and targets a different patient population, so its prospects are not directly impacted by this failure.

However, Novartis's results do strip away any easy assumptions investors made about the commercial value of Lp(a) reductions. With Amgen's OCEAN(a) outcomes study nearing completion, enrolling 7,297 participants and tracking coronary-heart-disease deaths, heart attacks, and urgent coronary procedures over roughly five years, the market will no longer reward olpasiran for simply crushing a biomarker.

The company still has significant financial resources, with $10.1 billion in second-quarter revenue and $3.5 billion in free cash flow, but its shares sit 19.54% above their GF Value estimate of $365.76, leaving less room for clinical disappointment.