Apple Defies Slump as iOS Market Share Set for Record High

The global smartphone market is expected to experience its steepest decline yet, according to IDC. The research firm projects a record 16.7% drop in shipments to just over 1 billion units in 2026, despite the total market value growing by 6.3% to $613 billion as average selling prices surge 27.6% to $581.

However, Apple (AAPL) is poised to gain significantly from this downturn. The company's iOS market share is expected to reach a record high of 23.6%, nearly four percentage points higher than its current level. This is due in part to the memory shortage, which has driven NAND and DRAM costs up over 300% year over year.

IDC Vice President Francisco Jeronimo noted that vendors are increasingly passing these higher costs on to consumers as they lose the ability to absorb them. Apple faces far less volume pressure than Android manufacturers, with iOS shipments expected to fall only 1.3%. This, combined with its strong foldable smartphone sales, is helping Apple gain market share.

Despite this, smaller Android vendors concentrated in entry-level devices face significant pressure as the market shifts towards fewer units, higher prices, and greater concentration among leading brands.