Apple's Foldable iPhone Duo Falls Flat at Launch
Apple's highly anticipated foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, was unveiled at its autumn launch event on September 9. The new device has been a subject of much speculation, with market expectations running high. However, despite the excitement around the product, Apple's stock price remained relatively calm, closing at $315.34 on the day of the launch and rising to $318 in after-hours trading.
The event marked the first major test for new CEO John Ternus, who has succeeded Tim Cook. The iPhone Duo has been hailed as one of Apple's best-designed products in years by Bloomberg Intelligence, with a predicted shipment of 14 million units in its first year, generating approximately $28 billion in sales.
However, the stock price did not see a significant surge, as analysts pointed out that the pricing strategy was interpreted negatively. The Pro series increased by only $100, while the iPhone 17/Air maintained its original price, leading Jefferies to describe it as 'sacrificing margins for volume.'
Market expectations were high before the event, but institutional divergence was unprecedented. Bullish analysts predicted that foldable screens would open up a new growth curve in the ultra-premium segment, with IDC predicting Apple could capture 40% of the global foldable screen market share by the end of 2027.
On the other hand, bearish analysts pointed out that the P/E ratio of approximately 36x is far above the ten-year average of 23x, indicating elevated valuation. Historical patterns are also discouraging, with Apple's stock falling an average of 0.72% on launch day and 1.22% in the following five days over the past five years.
The current 'heavy volume with a slight decline' suggests a wait-and-see attitude amid divergent views. The real decisive factors lie not in the launch event itself, but in pre-orders on October 16, inventory buildup and premium pricing after sales begin on October 23, as well as gross margins, iPhone average selling prices (ASP), and foldable screen yield rates in the next earnings report.