Apple's iPhone Launch Day Stock Jitters Persist for Nearly Two Decades

For nearly two decades, Apple's stock has followed a peculiar pattern on iPhone launch days. According to data from Bluekurtic Market Insights, across 24 iPhone launches since 2007, AAPL shares have averaged a 0.3% decline on the day of the big reveal. However, the next trading day often tells a different story, with Apple averaging a 0.5% gain.

This phenomenon is not unique to Apple; the broader market also shows a similar pattern. The S&P 500 has closed higher the day after an iPhone launch 79.2% of the time, while the Nasdaq 100 has done so 75% of the time. Bank of America's Wamsi Mohan expects three new phones, including Apple's first foldable iPhone, alongside price increases of $150 to $200 across the Pro line.

Apple opens its 'Surprise and Shine' event on Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET, marking the company's first iPhone launch under new CEO John Ternus. KeyBanc Capital Markets expects total iPhone 18 builds to be roughly 80 million units through early fiscal 2027, down from about 91 million a year earlier due to rising memory and storage costs.