BMO Downgrades Amgen and BioNTech Citing Loss-of-Exclusivity Headwinds

BMO Capital Markets downgraded Amgen (AMGN) and BioNTech (BNTX) to Market Perform from Outperform, citing limited near-term upside and a more balanced risk-reward for biopharma companies.

The downgrade was led by analyst Evan Seigerman, who cut Amgen's rating while maintaining a price target of $450. He noted that commercial execution is now the base case for the stock, with shares up 34% year-to-date outperforming the broader S&P 500 and the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical indexes.

Amgen continues to face significant loss-of-exclusivity headwinds, Seigerman said, with pressure visible on Prolia/XGEVA, Enbrel, Otezla, and Kyprolis. He also noted that Amgen's obesity drug MariTide offers a potentially differentiated profile with less frequent dosing, but Phase 2 efficacy and tolerability data leave questions about its competitiveness against established injectable and oral therapies.

The downgrade was partly driven by Novartis' announcement that its cholesterol drug pelacarsen failed in a closely watched study, which raised concerns about Amgen's experimental cholesterol drug olpasiran. JPMorgan analysts said the Novartis results lower expectations for olpasiran ahead of late-stage data expected in late 2027 or early 2028.

In a separate move, BMO cut BioNTech to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered its price target to $105 from a prior level. Seigerman cited stronger-than-expected erosion of COVID vaccine Comirnaty, a lack of de-risking data for cancer drug pumitamig until 2028, and reduced expectations for the company's mRNA-based iNeST program.

BioNTech's Comirnaty revenue guidance has been cut repeatedly, most recently by $400 million to $1.75 billion at the midpoint, on softer global COVID vaccine demand and a German inventory drawdown. BMO now models Comirnaty revenue of about $629 million in 2027, below consensus of $850 million.