Boeing Lands $131 Billion Defense Deal, But Analysts Differ on Fair Value

Boeing (BA) has secured a major defense deal worth $131.23 billion for its F-15 Eagle Crest contract, covering production, modernization, upgrades, sustainment, and depot maintenance for U.S. and allied air forces.

The stock's recent share price return has been mixed, with the stock down over the year despite a small 1-day gain of 0.48% and a 30-day share price return of 0.28%, while the 1-year total shareholder return has declined by 9.99%.

Analyst targets and intrinsic value estimates still sit well above the current $212 price, with some estimating fair value at $160.01, suggesting the stock is overvalued according to the most popular narrative.

However, a different view suggests that Boeing screens as trading about 45.9% below its cash flow-based value of $391.88, raising questions about which set of assumptions about Boeing's future cash generation feels more realistic.