Chevron Not to Blame for Soaring Gas Prices, Geopolitics Take Center Stage

High energy prices have become one of the biggest inflation stories of 2026. The national average price for regular gasoline now sits around $4.10 per gallon, up sharply from roughly $2.98 before the Iran conflict erupted earlier this year.

President Trump took aim at Chevron (NYSE:CVX) this morning after CEO Mike Wirth appeared on Fox Business discussing the company's strong performance. In a Truth Social post, Trump argued Chevron's success was only possible because of his administration's actions in Venezuela, including reopening the country's oil industry to U.S. companies after Nicolas Maduro's removal.

However, that criticism misses how gasoline pricing actually works. Retail stations are largely price takers rather than price makers, with owners pricing fuel based on what it will cost to replace the next shipment, local competitors' prices, labor costs, rent, credit card fees, taxes, and margins that are often just pennies per gallon.

The biggest move in gasoline prices this year followed Trump's military action against Iran at the end of February. Oil markets immediately priced in the possibility of supply disruptions throughout the Middle East, sending both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude above $100 per barrel before easing.