Cisco Earnings: Will AI Guidance Save the Stock from Oversold Levels?

Cisco Systems Inc will release its fiscal Q4 earnings report after market close today, August 12. The company's stock has already gained 57% year-to-date and is sitting at $120.43, just 7.6% below its 52-week high.

The consensus numbers look straightforward, with a revenue expectation of $16.82B (up 13% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.17. However, the upside optionality lies in whether management raises its AI order target above $9B and guides FY27 for low-teens growth versus the Street's 9.5% estimate.

The technical setup is bullish, with a strong trend in place on both daily and weekly charts. However, the stock is approaching resistance levels around $125.82 and $130.21. The risk/reward is asymmetric to the downside if the reaction is negative, as seen in Q2's 13% drop on a beat.

Cisco's AI pivot is real, but the company is competing against Arista Networks (up 47.6% YTD) and other hyperscaler-friendly vendors. If enterprise spending slows or AI capex decelerates, Cisco's growth story gets questioned.