Cisco Stock Surges Amid Hidden Order Book Boom
Cisco Systems' (CSCO) stock saw a significant surge of 68.5% from August 22, 2025 to August 25, 2026, outperforming the S&P 500's 19.7% gain over the same period. However, the company's financial reports at the time suggested nothing extraordinary.
The key to understanding this anomaly lies in Cisco's AI infrastructure orders. For three consecutive quarters before the stock price rise, the company disclosed its AI infrastructure orders publicly. By February 12, 2025, these orders had reached $700 million year-to-date, exceeding $1 billion for fiscal 2025 a quarter early.
Management attributed the growth to specific orders for systems and optics built around Cisco's Silicon One chips. The company's partnership with NVIDIA in May 2025 further solidified its position in the market. By August 13, 2025, just nine days before the stock price began rising, fiscal Q4 2025 AI infrastructure orders had surpassed $800 million.
Despite the robust order numbers, Cisco's revenue growth was sluggish at 0.5% year-over-year as of its fiscal Q3 2025 results. This discrepancy between orders and revenue recognition is a crucial aspect of understanding the stock's performance.