Currie Warns of Commodity Super Cycle: Get Long and Buckle Up

Jeff Currie, former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and current energy strategy head at Carlyle Group, is calling for investors to 'Get long and buckle up' as he believes markets are entering a structural commodity bull cycle. In a note dated August 20, 2026, Currie reiterated his May forecast that the market has yet to price in this trend.

Currie's argument is based on three pillars: AI infrastructure demand, supply shortages, and deglobalization. He points out that major tech companies are planning to spend around $700 billion on capital expenditures (capex) in 2026, but will face 'hard limits' on physical materials. Mining companies are spending 40% less than at the 2012 supercycle peak, despite a surge in demand for copper and aluminum.

Currie also highlights a 'Munificent 7' of oil majors trading at a 15.5% free cash flow yield and 7x P/E ratio, compared to the 'Magnificent 7' tech names at 1.5% and 28x. He argues that this spread cannot persist after 15 years of underinvestment in refining, upstream production, and mining.

Currie has been bullish on gold, which he sees as a live test case for his commodity supercycle thesis. In May, he forecast a pullback towards $4,000 an ounce, but turned bullish again on August 17, calling the recovery 'in its early innings'. He now owns gold and other commodities, including silver and agriculture.