El Nino Boosts Chances of Below-Normal Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season outlook has been updated by NOAA, and the forecast is looking more favorable for the remainder of the season. The probability of a below-normal season has increased to 75%, up from 55% in the original May outlook.

A typical Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. In contrast, the revised forecast for this year's season stands at 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes.

The improved forecast is attributed to El Niño, which has strengthened in the equatorial Pacific and continues to get stronger every month. According to Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's National Weather Service, 'When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity.'

If you're planning a trip to Walt Disney World this fall, the updated forecast offers some reassurance, but the season's peak is still ahead. Central Florida can be affected by tropical storms and hurricanes tracking through the Gulf or up the Atlantic coast.