El Niño's Supercharged Threat to the Amazon Rainforest
The Amazon rainforest is facing an unprecedented threat from a potentially record-breaking El Niño event. Forecasters predict that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean will peak at 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) in December, surpassing previous records and fueling global temperature increases.
El Niño typically exacerbates droughts and wildfires in the Amazon, and researchers worry that a super El Niño could push the rainforest past its tipping point. This critical threshold would trigger runaway drought, tree death, and ecosystem collapse, potentially releasing 15 to 20 years' worth of global CO2 emissions.
A study published in May suggests that the Amazon is already vulnerable to climate extremes and deforestation. The researchers found that a 22% to 28% deforestation rate, combined with a 2.7 to 3.42 degrees Fahrenheit temperature increase above pre-industrial levels, could lead to major changes in up to 77% of the rainforest.
Nico Wunderling, an Earth-system modeler at Goethe University, warned that 'we're not too far away' from this tipping point. Bernardo Flores, a specialist in Amazon resilience, expressed concern about the escalating strength of El Niños and their impact on flammable forests.