Fed Minutes and Retail Earnings to Gauge US Consumer Resilience

The upcoming week promises to be an eventful one for the US market, with several key events scheduled to take place. On August 19th, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting, which is expected to provide insight into the central bank's thinking on interest rates.

Recent inflation data has eased concerns about an immediate rate hike, but policy disagreements within the Fed persist. The July meeting voted 9-3 to keep interest rates unchanged, with three members advocating a 25-basis-point rate hike. Therefore, the meeting minutes will serve as an important basis for the market to gauge the policy direction for September.

The core focus of US earnings next week will shift further from AI tech stocks to U.S. consumer, real estate, and industrial cycles. Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), TJX Companies (TJX), Estée Lauder (EL), Walmart (WMT), Deere (DE), Ross Stores (ROST), and Analog Devices (ADI) will report earnings in succession.

On August 20th, Walmart will release its second-quarter earnings, which are critical for assessing the resilience of US consumer spending. The company's results will be closely watched by investors, who will look for signs that households continue to delay home renovations and big-ticket durable goods spending.