Foldable iPhone Speculation Drives Apple Stock Price Higher

Apple's stock price has been on an upward trend, rising 12.36% year to date and trading at around $304.52. This increase in value is partly due to speculation surrounding a potential foldable iPhone release before the end of the year.

According to Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, Apple is expected to release a foldable iPhone alongside a refreshed Pro model in September 2026, followed by base, Air, and entry-level 'e' variants in the first half of 2027. This sequencing is crucial as it will determine how much of the foldable revenue cycle will be included in Apple's fiscal 2026 results.

Prediction markets are already pricing in a high probability of this happening, with the 'Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?' contract on Polymarket trading at 0.81, implying an 81% crowd probability of a public launch by Dec. 31, 2026.

Bank of America is concerned about the impact of foldable displays on margins, as they carry higher component costs than standard OLED panels. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, takes a more demand-focused view, with their latest survey work pointing to 12% year-over-year growth in iPhone production and strong overall iPhone demand.

The consensus analyst price target sits at $330.53, or over 8% higher than Apple's current stock price. Analysts are watching closely whether Apple can protect its gross margins on the foldable's launch quarter.