Goldman Raises Oil Price Forecast on Lower OECD Stocks

Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2026, citing lower OECD stocks. The bank now expects Brent crude to average $60 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average $56 in Q4. This represents a $6 increase from its previous forecast.

The updated forecasts are based on Goldman's assumption that geopolitical tensions ease and there is no major supply disruption, including no Iran-related disruptions. The bank maintains its view of a surplus this year, with a forecast of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) above demand in 2026.

Goldman downgraded its supply outlook for several countries, including Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq due to production misses. However, it upgraded supply expectations for the Americas and core OPEC countries with spare capacity.