Goldman Sachs Sees $4,900 Gold Price by Year-End, Investors' Hedges Fuel Volatility

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that gold prices will rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 due to strong demand from central banks seeking to diversify their foreign currency reserves.

The analysts, Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, see central bank demand as a key structural factor driving the gold price rally. They expect central banks to buy an average of 50 tonnes of gold per month in 2026, up from an average of 17 tonnes per month before 2022.

China's central bank was the largest confirmed buyer in June 2026, purchasing 100 tonnes per month on a three-month seasonally adjusted basis. The analysts also highlighted interest rate expectations as another key factor driving the recent gold price increase.

The report noted that demand for gold call options is on the rise as investors use them to hedge their portfolios against large-scale changes in government policies, which could amplify price swings in both directions.