Goldman Sachs Upgrades Global Wafer Fab Equipment Spending Forecasts to $281 Billion

Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its global wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending forecasts, projecting $150 billion in 2026, $218 billion in 2027, and $281 billion in 2028. This marks a substantial increase from the prior estimates of $130 billion for 2026 and represents year-over-year growth of 36%, 45%, and 29%, respectively.

The report highlights that semiconductor capital expenditure data has exceeded expectations during the second-quarter earnings season, prompting equipment suppliers to issue more optimistic outlooks. This upward revision is not unique to Goldman Sachs, as market research firm SEMI set its 2026 WFE spending forecast at $135.2 billion (up 9% year-over-year) in December.

The primary drivers behind the foundry and DRAM spending upgrades are Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) and South Korea's Samsung Electronics, respectively. TSMC's N2 process expansion is expected to drive higher-than-expected equipment intensity, while Samsung's HBM4 upgrades and capacity expansion led to a 22% increase in capital expenditure forecasts for the company.

Goldman Sachs also noted that NAND spending will be more moderate and directionally mixed, with near-term incremental spending focusing on upgrades and retrofits rather than large-scale new capacity additions. The report highlights that DRAM supply is expected to remain tight through 2028 due to node migration and the upgrade to HBM4.