Google Shopping Ads Reverse Crocodile Effect: Impressions Down, Click-Through Rates Up

Google's AI Overviews have introduced an unexpected phenomenon in Google Shopping Ads. Known as the 'reverse crocodile effect,' it shows that after the expansion of AI Overviews, median ad impressions for Shopping ads decreased while click-through rates (CTR) increased.

A recent data analysis by Mike Ryan from Smarter Ecommerce reveals this trend. Between mid-2025 and mid-2026, median Shopping ad impressions dropped from 1.85 million to 1.4 million, while CTR climbed from 1.20% to nearly 1.55%. This shift has been observed in a dataset of 175 billion impressions.

Ryan suggests that Google may be checking predicted CTRs for queries and serving AI Overviews preferentially for lower-probability queries to preserve revenue. This could lead to a 'bridging strategy' where Google balances between 'either/or' experiences and 'both/and' experiences, especially as it launches AI-native formats with higher predicted CTR.