Gulf Oil Exports Slowly Recover Amid Ongoing Disruption

Gulf oil exports are slowly recovering from the disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran, but they remain significantly below pre-war levels. According to Goldman Sachs, total Gulf oil exports have reached roughly 15 million to 16 million barrels per day as of Thursday.

This figure is 7 million to 8 million bpd lower than before the conflict began, but 5 million to 6 million bpd above the trough reached in March. The upward revision suggests that Strait of Hormuz transits are likely close to US officials' estimate of 8 million to 10 million bpd.

Goldman attributed part of the recovery to a rise in 'dark crossings', which are transits conducted by specialized shippers operating with reduced transponder visibility, and an increase in ship-to-ship transfers. This demonstrates how market participants have adjusted their logistics to keep barrels moving despite the elevated risk environment in the Gulf.

Looking ahead, Goldman sees greater scope for price upside in European natural gas and longer-dated oil product contracts than in crude prices themselves, under scenarios where disruptions to Middle East supply persist.