Home Depot's Ticket Prices Mask Shrinkage in Customer Base

Home Depot's stock has taken a hit over the past year, falling by about 24% compared to the S&P 500's 19% return. While some of this decline can be attributed to the frozen housing market, there are other factors at play.

In its most recent fiscal Q2 2026 results, Home Depot reported that comparable average ticket prices rose by 2.8%, but comparable transactions fell by 1%. This growth in sales was driven by bigger baskets, with fewer overall transactions. Total sales for the quarter reached $47.9 billion, a 5.7% increase from the same period last year.

Management attributed the gap between total and comparable sales to the GMS acquisition, new stores, branches, and tuck-in acquisitions. They also noted that larger discretionary projects remain under pressure. However, they were pleased with performance in portable power and patio segments.

The company received tariff refunds worth $685 million, which offset unplanned cost inputs such as fuel, energy, and product costs. Management expects these refunds to cancel out over fiscal 2026, but notes that the remainder is immaterial.