IBM Stock Price Still Below Pre-Crash Levels, but Analysts See Potential for 38% Gain

IBM stock plummeted to $217.07 on July 14, 2026, its worst day in 115 years, after a weak second-quarter pre-announcement caused shares to fall 25.21% and erase approximately $67 billion in market value.

The company's software growth of 5% fell short of the double-digit pace it had guided to, while management cut the full-year software range to 6% to 8%. However, recurring and AI-adjacent lines held up well, with Red Hat accelerating to 11% and Data segment growing 18%, but Infrastructure fell 7%, IBM Z revenue dropped 42%, and Transaction Processing software declined 9%

CEO Arvind Krishna stated that a third of the slipped deals had already closed within three weeks of quarter-end, indicating this might be a deferral rather than a lost sale. The company reaffirmed its target to grow full-year free cash flow by about $1 billion and generated $4.8 billion in the first half.

The stock still trades at 13 times NTM EV/EBITDA and a NTM P/E near 18, below pre-crash levels, which could be a sign of fear rather than a permanent verdict if the deferred revenue shows up.