JPMorgan Notes Strong iPhone 18 Pro Demand Amid Foldable Phone Expectations
JPMorgan's analysts have been tracking delivery lead times for Apple's iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, which were announced on September 9. Pre-orders opened on September 12, with general availability set for September 18.
The analysts monitored lead times in the US, China, Germany, and the UK during the first week of pre-orders. Globally, home-delivery lead times averaged seven days for the iPhone 18 Pro and 19 days for the Pro Max, compared to 15 and 24 days respectively for the equivalent iPhone 17 models a year earlier.
The shortfall in lead times is more notable for the Pro model rather than the Pro Max. In the US, which accounts for approximately 34% of iPhone shipments, lead times came in at two days for the iPhone 18 Pro and 22 days for the Pro Max, versus four and 21 days for the prior-year equivalents.
JPMorgan noted that US Pro Max delivery times are tracking modestly ahead of the prior year even as the Pro tracks lower. China recorded the steepest year-on-year decline, with lead times for both the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max coming in at 13 and 21 days respectively, compared to 30 days for both equivalent models a year earlier.
The analysts expect Apple's forthcoming foldable device, called Duo, to attract meaningful demand in China because consumers are already primed for adoption of the foldable form factor after years of exposure to foldable phones from domestic manufacturers. Despite the broadly shorter lead times, JPMorgan cautioned that the early-cycle data should not be taken as a definitive read on underlying demand for the new Pro lineup.
The analysts noted that supply allocations across the Pro Max and Pro SKU can be different from prior years given structural changes to this year's product rollout, including the absence of a base model launch alongside the Pro tiers. Tracking how delivery lead times evolve over the coming weeks will be essential to forming a clearer picture of demand momentum for the iPhone 18 Pro models.