JPMorgan Sees Brent Crude Below $100 Even With Prolonged Conflict

JPMorgan's recent research report offers an unexpected assessment of the ongoing US-Iran conflict's impact on global oil prices. Despite international tensions and supply disruptions, Brent crude is unlikely to average above $100 per barrel in the long term, even if the conflict drags into 2027.

The bank argues that high oil prices themselves are driving a self-adjustment across the global petroleum system, with accelerated production increases from non-Middle East producers and voluntary fuel consumption cuts by businesses and households helping to prevent crude prices from spiraling out of control. The real pressure is being borne by refined product markets such as diesel and gasoline.

JPMorgan notes that Brent crude averaged approximately $97 from March through June, but by the third quarter, it had fallen to around $87. In contrast, refined product markets are visibly tight, with global diesel prices at historic highs and European distillate crack spreads setting new records.