KeyBanc Flags Risky iPhone 18 Pricing Ahead of September Launch
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 event on September 9th has investors concerned about pricing and demand, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets. The brokerage firm maintained an Underweight rating and a price target of $250 for Apple shares. KeyBanc believes higher production costs will put pressure on Apple's gross margin unless the company passes these expenses onto customers.
The firm estimates that the iPhone 18 lineup will include the Pro, Pro Max, and a foldable model, along with new Apple Watch and AirPods products. Combined iPhone 18 builds are projected to be around 80 million units in fiscal year 2026's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2027's first quarter, compared to about 91 million units a year earlier.
Prices for the Pro model are estimated at $1,249, while the Pro Max will cost $1,399. The foldable device is expected to be priced at $2,199. Historically, Apple shares have declined around iPhone launches, with an average loss of 0.72% on announcement days and 1.22% five sessions later.
KeyBanc's view suggests that higher prices may support revenue but could weigh on volumes and margins. This has investors weighing the potential risks and rewards ahead of the highly anticipated event.