Macquarie Sees Broadcom as Key to AI Compute Ramp

Macquarie has upgraded Broadcom to Outperform, calling it the 'cleanest listed proxy' for Anthropic's compute ramp. Analyst Arthur Lai argued that the risk from Google bringing chip production in-house has largely played out and that Broadcom is now the cleanest listed way to gain exposure to Anthropic's compute buildout.

Lai pointed to a significant pullback from Broadcom's 2026 high, as well as Google's direct investment in MediaTek, which he said showed the insourcing threat was already reflected in the price. He forecasted that Anthropic will purchase more than $40 billion from Broadcom in fiscal 2028, more than offsetting lost Google business.

Broadcom's third-quarter results were in line with expectations, with revenue up 33% quarter-on-quarter to $29.6 billion and a gross profit margin of 75.0%. Lai also noted that growth now rests more evenly on six XPU customers, including OpenAI, which is expected to become the second-largest XPU customer by fiscal 2028.

Macquarie raised its fiscal 2028 earnings estimate by 12% and lifted its price target 12% to $490, implying a total shareholder return of about 35%. Lai said Broadcom dominates the rapid-growth AI ASIC market and has a 'SerDes/IP moat' that secures long-term edge in custom silicon.