McDonald's Stock Hits New Low Amid Declining U.S. Traffic Growth
McDonald's stock has hit a 52-week low of $253.12, down 25.9% from its March high of $341.75. This decline is not due to earnings collapse, as McDonald's continues to increase profit and expand its restaurant base. The company's franchise model is still generating significant revenue, with franchised-restaurant sales increasing 4% to $4.39 billion.
The market is removing part of the premium it once paid for predictable customer traffic, making McDonald's cheaper but not cheap enough to make a U.S. traffic recovery optional. The company's second-quarter report showed U.S. comparable sales growth slowed to 0.8%, while global comparable sales rose 1.3%. This distinction matters, as higher menu prices and product mix can lift the check even when fewer customers visit.
Management has acknowledged the execution problem without describing the U.S. operation as broken. The leadership change makes traffic - not another menu promotion - the cleanest scorecard for shareholders. McDonald's expects to spend $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion on capital projects in 2026 and open about 2,600 restaurants gross.