Microsoft Stock Upsurge Skews Analyst Forecasts

The four tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, have seen their stock prices affected by heavy spending on artificial intelligence research. Among them, only Amazon is outperforming the S&P 500 year to date.

Analysts expect a significant increase in the stock prices of these companies over the next 12 months. According to CNN's tracking data, Meta has the most favorable outlook with a median one-year price target of $750, representing a 26.6% gain from its Aug. 7 closing price of $592.10.

Alphabet and Amazon also have optimistic forecasts, with a median price target of $426.50 for Alphabet (20.6% higher than its Aug. 7 closing price) and $325 for Amazon (18.4% gain). Microsoft, however, has the lowest expected gains, but there's a catch: analysts expect the stock to reach its median price target of $555 in 12 months.

But what seems like a tepid outlook on the surface may not be as bad as it appears. Microsoft recently reported strong results for its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and its cloud infrastructure division, Azure, surpassed $100 billion in revenue for the first time. This growth is a sign that capex spending is producing results, and investors applauded the news.

The rapid rise of Microsoft stock has skewed the median price target to look worse than it is. The stock's price surged 31% from July 23 to Aug. 7, with analysts expecting the predicted gains to be more spaced out over a 12-month period rather than arriving in just a few weeks of trading.